Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall with mixed data sampling

I propose applying the Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected shortfall (ES). The new methods exploit the serial dependence on short-horizon returns to directly forecast the tail dynamics of the desired horizon. I perform a comprehensive comparison of out-of-sample VaR and ES forecasts with established models for a wide range of financial assets and backtests. The MIDAS-based models significantly outperform traditional GARCH-based forecasts and alternative conditional quantile specifications, especially in terms of multi-day forecast horizons. My analysis advocates models that feature asymmetric conditional quantiles and the use of the Asymmetric Laplace density to jointly estimate VaR and ES.     

Navigating Through the Spatial and Institutional Contradictions of Public Audit Oversight

Abstract

This study revisits the actions of the French audit regulator (H3C) and the French profession over the 2003–2013 period in response to the regulatory transformations that occurred both in the national and transnational space. Our analysis highlights how these actors have navigated through the spatial and institutional contradictions that characterize public audit oversight in order to manage variable and opposing interests from one space to another. In particular, we show how conflicting national and transnational conceptions of professionalism and commercialism have developed to support different regulatory agendas. Our analysis of the spatial dynamics of public audit oversight allows us to propose a much less confrontational representation of the relationships between public audit regulators and the audit profession. We maintain that more attention should be paid to the spatial variants of commercialism and professionalism to better understand the development of audit regulation.     

Resurrecting the size effect: Evidence from a panel nonlinear cointegration model for the G7 stock markets

Firm size is known to be an important factor affecting stock returns. This study proposes a panel threshold cointegration model to investigate the impact of the size effect on stock returns for the panel of G7 countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. over the period 1991:1–2012:12. The empirical analysis is based upon the nonlinear cointegration framework using the asymmetric ARDL cointegration methodology (Shin et al., 2011). This methodological approach permits a much richer degree of flexibility in the dynamic adjustment process toward equilibrium, than in the classical linear model. Our findings indicate the presence of asymmetric adjustment around a unique long-run equilibrium. In particular, the empirical analysis provides evidence of asymmetric effects between stock returns and the size effect, while controlling for the book-to-market ratio and the price-to-earnings ratio.     

空间分析在住宅价值评估中应用研究综述

住宅是一种异质性商品，它的构成使用价值的各个特征之间有明显的差异，因此特征价格定价模型广泛用于住宅的价值评估。但是由于住宅数据中常常表现出空间问题，使得传统的特征价格模型不再适用，空间效应在不动产领域的存在引起了学者们的广泛关注。对空间分析在住宅价值评估中的应用研究进行了回顾和阐述，首先分析空间效应的来源和影响，讨论了在传统模型中纳入空间效应的重要性，接着阐述如何对这些空间效应进行有效建模和检验，并分析了进一步研究的方向。     

Incorporating satisfaction measures into a restaurant productivity index

The increasing stature of the foodservice industry in the global service economy suggests that productivity analyses—similar to those performed in non-service-based settings—would benefit multi-unit operators by maximizing their desirable operational outcomes while minimizing expenses and other detrimental conditions such as low job satisfaction. This paper suggests that such analyses might be possible through the application of a holistic productivity metric—one that includes traditional operational variables such as revenue, profit, food cost, and labor cost, and previously ignored variables such as guest and employee satisfaction as well as retention equity. Through data gathered from a single chain's 36 corporate-owned, same-brand casual-theme restaurants located in metropolitan centers across the United States, we found that factors leading to maximum outputs such as controllable profit and retention equity include employee satisfaction in addition to expected variables such as cost of goods sold and number of seats. Most notably, employee satisfaction as an input proved to be the most volatile variable in maximizing operational outputs.     

Asymmetric competition in retail store formats: Evaluating inter- and intra-format spatial effects

Our study aims to analyze the role of store format in retail competitive interactions, specifically, the relationship between growth, location strategy, and market response. To assess this relationship, we propose an extension of the classic models of spatial interaction, which incorporate the asymmetric competitive effects linked to the concept of store format. An empirical application allows us to confirm greater spatial rivalry within store formats (intra-format) than between store formats (inter-format). This implies a certain hierarchical organization when consumers select a retail store, first choosing the type of store at which they will shop and later a particular store within this format. The results are important for retailers who want to configure an optimal network of store locations as well as public administrators who must regulate commercial activity.     

无线数传中频FSK Modem的研究

<正> 社会王义市场经济的确立,使我国改革开放步入新的发展阶段。作为国家经济支柱的国有大中型企业,正从传统的管理体制中解放出来,以崭新的姿态融入国内经济大潮,迎接国际挑战。但大中型     

LZW压缩数据的不均一两分段误码保护编码

由T.A.Welch提出的LZW数据压缩方法已经被广泛地应用于文字压缩。然而，因为误码对压缩数据的危害很大，所以对压缩数据的纠错编码是十分重要且必不可少的。本文分析了误码对LZW压缩数据的影响，指出同样的误码对用于重建辞书的前一部分压缩数据的危害比对后面的其它数据的危害要严重得多，提出用一种不均一两分段误码保护编码方法，对用于重建辞书的前一部分压缩数据进行更好地保护。计算机模拟显示，该方法比传统的误码保护方法更有效。     

自适应无线传输技术在高速下行数据分组接入中的应用

随着高速、多媒体数据业务需求的日益增长 ,未来无线移动通信系统越来越需要解决支持更高速数据传输技术及频带利用率的问题 ,自适应传输技术是提高频带利用率的有效手段。结合最新3GPP提出的高速下行数据分组接入HSDPA ,归纳、总结和分析了自适应无线传输技术在HSDPA的应用以及其优点和应用前景、未来的研究方向     

外国直接投资与我国技术创新研究

本文运用面板协整工具和动态最小二乘法(DOLS)来检验我国1990-2004年间FDI的技术溢出效应与我国技术创新的相关关系。实证研究的结果显示:FDI与我国技术创新存在着长期稳定的关系;如果跨越了一定的人力资本门槛,那么FDI从总体上对我国的技术创新产生了积极的影响,也可以说人力资本在FDI促进我国技术创新中起着关键的作用。